Are we about to see an electric automotive market?

Customer adoption will outrun regulatory anticipations, with Europe's Electric Vehicle (EV) market share getting over 75% by 2030.

Fremont, CA: By 2035, the world's ruling automotive markets will have swapped to electric vehicles. Regulatory pressure and customer interest in electric cars vary considerably by area. Europe is mainly a regulation-driven market with considerable subsidies, whereas consumer pull in China is emphatic despite lower incentives. EV sales have developed gradually in the United States because of a lack of regulatory pressure and customer interest. Yet, the regulation trend is anticipated to change with the incoming administration.

Under the current regulatory targets, global EV adoption is expected to reach 45%. Yet, even this transformative EV growth foretells must catch up to what is needed to get net-zero emissions. By 2030, EVs must account for 75% of global passenger car sales, much quicker than the industry's current trajectory.

Also, as a regulatory-driven market with promising customer demand trends, Europe will electrify the most rapidly and will keep ruling the world in EV market share. Many countries have sworn an end to ICE (internal combustion engine) sales by 2030, along with the European Commission's goal of about 60% EV sales by 2030. In keeping with this, seven OEM brands in the European Union have pledged to sell 100% electric vehicles by 2030. In the most likely speed-up scenario, consumer adoption will outpace regulatory expectations, with Europe's EV market share achieving over 75% by 2030. In addition, by 2035, the European Union has set a zero-emissions mark for new cars.

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China's electrification will increase, and it will remain the world's largest EV market in absolute terms. Despite minimal EV subsidies and no official deadline for ICE sales, robust consumer pull drives uptake. On the contrary, the government's dual-credit strategy has increased the %age of electric vehicles in OEM portfolios. In the accelerated scenario, our adoption modeling forecasts a Chinese EV market share of more than 70% for new car sales in 2030.

The United States fixed a goal of 50% electrification by 2030, significant expenditures in charging infrastructure, and more rigid fleet emissions objectives. However, in the expedited scenario, US OEMs back electrification ambitions and have reported ICE bans by 2035, suggesting that the US would reach Europe and China in respect of EV adoption with a slight hold up; it is expected to exceed present regulatory targets and achieve 65% EV sales by 2030.